North Africa

Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states. For each country/region, we are adopting a three-phase approach.* In the first phase, contracted research-such as this publication-explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region/country.* In the second phase, a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community (IC) will determine whether anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations, cause economic hardship, or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country/region.* In the final phase, the NIC's Long-Range Analysis Unit (LRAU) will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security.