Diplomacy and Security in the South China Sea

Maritime and territorial disputes in the South China Sea are universally recognized as a long-term security challenge and a potential short-term flashpoint. Conflicting claims to the strategic waterways which connect maritime Asia endanger trade, transportation, commerce and energy flows, creating the risk of conflict. China has taken the riskiest and most dangerous actions of any of any party to the disputes, seizing territory far from its shores, fielding huge fleets of Coast Guard and fishing vessels to bolster its claims and constructing military outposts throughout contested zones to consolidate its strategic position. Despite the dire and worsening situation, recent developments have given the South China Sea an unfulfilled potential for positive progress. This summer [2016], an Arbital Tribune, constituted under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, issued an eagerly anticipated ruling in a case between China and the Philippines, bringing legal certainty to the truth that China's claims on the South China Sea are illegitimate. Though the international community cheered the ruling, its influence is still uncertain. Since the tribunal announced its ruling, the uncertain status quo has persisted in the South China Sea. China has moved aggressively to generate diplomatic cover for its legally untenable and unjustifiable claims. Throughout the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) China has used surrogates to disrupt and block consensus, successfully preventing unified statements on the issue in regional summits.